High Frequency Traders

Interesting article on high frequency traders.

It is now generally understood that high frequency traders (HFTs) are dominating the equity market, generating as much as 70% of the volume.

HFTs are computerized trading programs that make money two ways, in general. They offer bids in such a way so as to make tiny amounts of money from per share liquidity rebates provided by the exchanges. Or they make tiny per share long or short profits. While this might sound like small change, HFTs collectively execute millions of trades a day, making it an extremely profitable business.

I have had a theory that part of the reason we have so much volatility in the markets these days is the increased use of electronic trading programs. Hedge funds electronically buy and sell once the market hits their set point. I haven’t been following the market all that long and to be honest I don’t even watch it that closely but it does seem like every other day the market is drastically shifting up or down. I think it might be because many of these HFT’s aren’t really acting with any logical thought behind them, they are merely just milestones that are being met that trigger a predetermined action. Couple the high frequency traders with the market information overload that is shoved down every investor's throat everyday and I am amazed the market isn't more volatile! Some of the points in this article are scary to say the least.

There’s a lot to worry about:

1. HFTs provide low-quality liquidity

In the old days, when NYSE specialists or NASDAQ market makers added liquidity, they were required to maintain a fair and orderly market, and to post a quote that was part of the National Best Bid and Offer a minimum percentage of time. HFTs have no such requirements. They have no minimum shares to provide nor do they have a minimum quote time. And they could turn off their liquidity at any time. When an HFT computer spots a real order, the HFT is not likely to go against it and take the other side. The institution is then faced with a very tough stock to trade.

2. HFT volume can generate false trading signals

This can cause other investors to buy at a higher price, or sell at a lower price, than they would otherwise. A spike in HFT volume can cause an institutional algorithm order based on a percentage of volume to be too aggressive. A spike can attract momentum investors, further exaggerating price moves. Seeing such a spike, options traders can start to build positions, which, in turn, can attract risk arbitrage traders who believe there’s potential news that could affect the stock.

3. HFT computer servers are faster than other trading systems

Because most HFT servers are co-located at exchanges, they can beat out institutional or retail orders, causing them to pay more or sell for less than they should have for a stock.

Then there are the “what if” problems that could be created by HFTs:

1. What if a regulation like the uptick rule were enacted?

Volumes could implode and stocks that appeared highly liquid could become extremely difficult to trade with wide spreads and no depth in the quote.

2. What if a “rogue” algorithm entered the market?

Many HFTs are hedge funds that enter their orders into the market through a “sponsored access” arrangement with a broker. Many of these arrangements do not have any pre-trade risk controls since these clients demand the fastest speed. Due to the fully electronic nature of the equity markets today, one keypunch error could wreak havoc. Nothing would be able to stop a market destroying order once the button was pressed.

Gives new meaning to the term “mutually assured destruction”?

Stocks: The Lost Decade

The article from BusinessWeek below is very interesting. I have included the entire article below. I would love to hear some dialogue in the comments about what all you BadskiBlog readers think about this article.

There are still six months left in this decade, but it is not too soon to start drafting its obituary. Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s, is already looking at the decade’s stock market legacy. It’s ugly. The S&P 500 is down 39.22% from Dec. 31, 1999 through Monday’s close.

“We need a 63.79% advance just to break-even for the decade,” Silverblatt says. That’s not going to happen by Dec. 31. “The last negative decade was the 1930s, -41.77%,” according to Silverblatt. Annualized, stocks lost 5.12% so far this decade; in the 1930s decade of the Great Depression they lost 5.26%.

When this decade started, the talk was about sure-thing tech stocks and worries that the Y2K software bug would set the world back to 1900. The computer clocks entered the new millennium. The tech stocks broke down within 90 days.

Some people said we should call this decade the oughts, for the two zeroes. The term didn’t catch on. Looking back, it is clear that the real oughts of the 2000s were that we ought not to have paid so much for internet stocks and that we ought not to have paid so much for big houses with granite counter-tops.

Now we know that it was a lot easier, and cheaper, to fix the Y2K bug before a calamity than to fix the stock, housing and credit markets after. To our regret, we were more skeptical of computer programs than the “efficient” markets we wanted to make us rich. Nerds win. Pigs lose.

When I read this article a part of me wants to cringe. I have done all of my investing during this decade, so to read the sobering statistics above is troubling to say the least. Hopefully you can tell from my posts that I am an optimist. Continuing with the optimist mentality, I have saved what I consider a significant amount in the second half of this decade considering my first two years of investing were during college and the last three have been starting out living on my own. Even with all those losses I still feel as though I have been successful in accumulating wealth. If you keep more than you spend and invest for the long term it doesn’t matter what your return is. Sure it sucks that stocks are down but it is only a matter of time until you reach your goals, even if you are taking a paper loss. Who knows the next decade could be a 10% annualized gain decade. You cannot time the market and you cannot control the return that the overall market bears. So control how much you save and let time value of money work its magic while you accumulate wealth.